The PGA Championship is here. Scott and Joe break down why the PGA Tour suddenly has a clear top tier — Scottie, Rory, Cam Young, and Ludvig Åberg — and why everyone else is chasing. The guys recap the Truist fallout, debate Cam Young’s rise, preview Aronimink, and reveal this week’s best bets, fades, sleepers, and live betting strategy for major week. Follow the show on YouTube @nostrokes. Follow Scott on X @kitun. Follow Joe on Instagram @venmojoe. Subscribe at nostrokes.co.
Venmo Joe (00:03.65)
What's up Scotty, 2Hotty.
Scott Kitun (00:04.13)
Good morning. Good morning Venmo Joe. How we doing?
Venmo Joe (00:09.036)
Dude, I'm great, man. We're second major of the year is upon us. Ironimant.
Scott Kitun (00:13.55)
PGA week, PGA week, we're here.
Venmo Joe (00:15.852)
Can't wait, man. The PGA is like the drunk uncle of the majors, right? Like it's, it's not as serious as the other three. And yeah, I think we're going to have a lot of fun with this course, much different than some of the PGA setups that they've had not as long. I think it's going to open up to some guys that are dark horses. I think we're going to get an unbelievable leaderboard. So I'm pumped, man. How are you?
Scott Kitun (00:44.374)
I'm good. feel the same way. It's funny. I forget who I want to give credit for this because I thought it was really smart. Maybe it's that golf Taylor guy. Forget who it was on the Twitter's. But he he basically to your point like PGA being like the drunk uncle. He's like that's sort of like how we talk about this. But actually if I go side by side against the US open like course type and creativity and like what the rounds actually look like PGA is like as hard not quite as hard like not it's not as hard as the US in its peak.
But if you go side by side, it's like right there. So he's like, I don't know why we treat this like it's just a runaway. The numbers don't say that, which I thought was super interesting because in my brain, it's like a US Open by a mile hard. I don't know.
Venmo Joe (01:23.554)
No, it's good. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and I think we got recency bias, right? US Open is coming off of Oakmont, which one guy was under par. Um, I think this week you're going to see winning score in the 18 to 20 under range. So it's going to, it's going to be a little bit of a runaway. Some of it's going to be dependent on weather, which I know we'll get into with the.
with the weather forecast, but that's part of the PGA changing to May, right? Is that it used to be in August, you used to get really dried out firm greens. And when it's in May, especially in the Northeast or the Midwest, you get a lot of rain, right? So we're gonna get some rain in the forecast. I think it's gonna dry out for the weekend, we're gonna see some low scores. I read that...
Scott Kitun (02:11.582)
It's early, right? Thursday, something like that.
Venmo Joe (02:17.802)
you know, some caddies were talking and like the target for their guys are, you know, before under every day or yeah, every day of the tournament. Right. So if that's, if that's the goal, you know, some guys are going to get even hotter than that. Nah, Scott, Scott is Scottie Scottie's he's he's passed the Thursday blues, man. He's passed it. but yeah, excited to jump in on that. But, know, I guess we gotta, we gotta recap our, our bad card from last week too. I know that.
Scott Kitun (02:28.674)
Well, then Scotty's out. He's going to shoot 72 on Thursday. So that's that. We got one down.
Scott Kitun (02:46.914)
Yeah, God. So let's just do that first. Let's get the nasty taste out first. I texted you. I text. But see, here's the thing, though. And this is like this is the guy who, like, refuses to be wrong talking here, right? So take that for what it's worth. I'm wrong, but not all the way wrong. I texted you what Friday afternoon or Saturday morning with a picture of the leaderboard and our card. And we were four out of five calls, including the fade.
Venmo Joe (02:47.33)
I know that.
Venmo Joe (02:54.752)
Yeah, it bad.
Scott Kitun (03:15.672)
that were like right there and like Rory could have this, this could happen, this could happen, this could happen. Everything was lined up and nothing happened. Rory like pissed in his pants that round, which is also strange by the way, because I watched him and I don't know if it was a narrative thing or what was going on, but I watched him walking up. He looked, you know, like Rory, looked like he just had a nice evening and the cut like the,
Venmo Joe (03:17.75)
Yeah.
Scott Kitun (03:43.823)
The commentator guys are basically like talking him up like he's going to come out today and fucking tear this place up. He's looking so good. I saw him on the range, blah, blah, blah. Look at that swagger. He tees off. Perfect tee shot on one. Second shot, second perfect shot on second shot. Putt drills the putt. Birdie. Here we go guys. Here's Rory. And then literally bogeyed the rest of the fucking day. And it was so weird because they were talking about how in control he was and how good he was looking. And it played out for exactly one hole. And then it fell apart.
And then here's the thing, and just like setting up for this week, I would take absolutely nothing from what I saw, because it looked like a guy who was just sort of mentally not totally there. He turned it on, shoot 69 or 67 or whatever it was, I think it was 67. He shoots basically every other round is good and he's in control in the other round. He's just sort of all over the place. So I wouldn't take any of that into this week, but it was just a strange.
Venmo Joe (04:22.486)
Yeah.
Scott Kitun (04:39.424)
vision of this guy who I thought was going to crush and he looked ready to do it and then he just didn't and then he came back and you know whatever he finished 19 or whatever he finished so yeah that card was not not
Venmo Joe (04:49.93)
Yeah, it wasn't great. mean, I would say the commentary that we had on Rory was Quail Hollows is his course, so you can't discount him. But I think you and I also talked about that, you know, Rory's at the point of his career. I don't think he gets up for regular PGA Tour events, regardless of if it's a signature event and it's at a course that he's historically done well at. I think he's he is major hunting right now. That's all he's doing. Right. So last week, what we said was don't be surprised.
Scott Kitun (05:16.44)
That's a good point.
Venmo Joe (05:17.666)
Don't be surprised if it's just he's treating it as a complete tune up for. Um, Aaron, right? So I'm with you. I would not, um, I would not take a lot away from what we saw. It was a little peculiar. I mean, like even the first round, right? Like 17 straight pars. He almost, that was going to be his first round without a birdie. He finally birdied 18, but it was just a really strange week for him. Um,
Scott Kitun (05:35.0)
Yeah.
Venmo Joe (05:43.139)
Erronomic, like what we're going to talk about with a lot of the top tier players that we've been discussing over the last couple of weeks. mean, dude, the course fits him great, right? I mean, it fits him great. He's going to contend, just didn't have it for Quail Hollow. He's won enough there, right? Didn't need another trophy.
Scott Kitun (05:51.906)
Right.
Scott Kitun (05:58.974)
I just, I, you know, you know, from our show here, I talk a lot about like just the watch, what I see, the aura and we'll get into it with, with OBEG. But there's, there's something about how a player walks around the course, good at mostly when they're playing bad and Rory.
Venmo Joe (06:09.334)
Yeah.
Scott Kitun (06:22.198)
Just didn't seem like it mattered to him that he wasn't playing well and that to me is like, okay, you're not worried about anything. You're just like not giving a shit. that was my big miss. Let's just recap since we got it. You know, we had a sleeper pick Harris English. Felt awesome about him all the way up until Sunday basically, end of Saturday. He looked great. And then just, you know, and it wasn't like he fell apart. It was just like, he just didn't stay with the pace. And...
Venmo Joe (06:37.762)
Yeah, me too. Me too.
Scott Kitun (06:48.686)
you know I think what was it Saturday might have been plus one or two or whatever which is obviously not great but like he was in it and it just didn't finish Xander you had a pick I think was Xander was top five that was not not hitting Adam Scott was a was a top 10 pick that did not hit Jordan speed top 20 was a disaster.
Venmo Joe (07:05.122)
What I will say about Adam Scott, he had a really weird first round. I actually loved, I mean, I didn't love it for the card for last week, but I loved that there was a lot of people that were circling Adam Scott for Aronamech. And then he had a, yeah, I think he was dead last on Thursday at Quail Hollow, but then he came back, he played some solid golf.
Scott Kitun (07:12.163)
Mm-hmm.
Venmo Joe (07:31.853)
I'm not going to pick him to win when we get into our picks, but I like Adam Scott at aeronomic, right? Like he is number one shots gained approach. We're going to talk about how important that is at aeronomic because you're going to have a lot of approaches that are less than 200 yards really in that hundred and 120 to 150 yard range. So I don't, I don't hate that he didn't, he didn't pop at Coil Hollow cause we're getting a much better number on him now at aeron...
Scott Kitun (08:01.55)
Yeah, I mean, it's kind of funny, right? Like Adam Scott was a novelty act for a few years, like as much as a couple of years ago, was like, oh, every once in a while, Adam Scott would show up and he'd like put out a good round and it might be at a major, mostly the Masters. And now I feel like every week we're talking about signatures and majors and you're like, Adam Scott is in that realm. Like, is he right now a top 10 golfer?
Venmo Joe (08:22.176)
I just, he's, you know what, I think like, what I, what I, what I, he, we, you and I obviously love him. I think the data loves him. I, like what I can't shake. It's why I love Justin Rose at the masters. Like I just have this, I've got this feeling that both Adam Scott, like Adam Scott and Justin Rose hall of fame golfers. I just have this feeling that they're both going to get.
Scott Kitun (08:23.16)
Top 15. He's in contention, at least in conversation every week, seems like.
Venmo Joe (08:49.722)
one more major or at least really contend in one more major. would say Justin Rose would be one of those guys for this week, but we've already talked about why we don't love Rose with the equipment switch. I just think...
Scott Kitun (09:01.57)
Well, until he started driving a car's golf clubs, both he and Adam Scott were Mira guys, which as you know, I'm a Mira guy. Fucking Mira's the best. so, you know, that makes sense to me, older dudes with pure as shit irons, and now all of sudden, Rosie's driving around in golf club cars.
Venmo Joe (09:05.025)
Yeah.
Venmo Joe (09:09.439)
Yeah, you love Mira.
Venmo Joe (09:21.25)
But like, just can't shake the feeling that Adam Scott, you're just going to see him on the leaderboard in one or multiple majors this summer. It might be the PGA, it might be the US Open like he did last year, right? Like he was right there at Oakmont. Or it could be at the Open. Like he's one of those guys where I think you just got to put him in your card for top 10, top five even, top 20. Just make sure you've got some exposure to Adam Scott. He's just playing too consistently.
to completely ignore him, right? And, you know, to have a 70 to one ticket on him at one of these majors where I think he's gonna really contend is gonna make for a good sweat.
Scott Kitun (10:03.854)
Yeah, well look, I mean, I think one of the things you're circling and it's with Rose and jokes aside with Rose and Scott These are guys who have learned in their career how to play majors in a way that all these other young guys which I think we're gonna find out with Alex Fitzpatrick this week as well is The the effort of learning how to play in a major which is basically managing the blow-up hole making sure you don't have a string of bogeys or you don't have a you three putts you don't have a blow-up hole that that basically make the rest of the week kind of pointless and
Those guys know how to just hang around the cup, hang around the cup, hang around the cup. The thing about Adam Scott, and you could make this argument about Justin Rose too, but I would say Justin Rose has always kind of just always been in that realm. I never looked at Justin Rose as like a non-contending golfer. To me, he's always like, game is on. It's just a matter of if he's really real. He's like a Jim Feericky type. He's like, if he's really, really on or is he just on the just the next level. Adam Scott, and there's been a lot of people who've talked about this. He's gained.
a bunch of speed on his driver, on on his club head speed, like his swing speed. And he's picked up distance and he's able to contend with all these young guys distance wise in a way that he previously wasn't and guys his age typically don't. And I just, the thing that is standing out to me with him, it's not just the majors. Like I would have, I would have, like three years ago, I would have given you Adam Scott in the same list of names that I gave you Billy Horschel.
Every once in a while he pops on thing and like, shit, the Arcos guy. But that's not Adam Scott this year. The last two years really, but this year in particular, every single tournament, at least one day on the first page, whether it's the first day or the last day, on the first page is Adam Scott either charging at the end or setting a tone early or he's just consistently around the cup and the majors. I think it's a lot of fun to watch. think it gets into a story I wanna talk about.
I'm gonna put in the newsletter, but I wanna talk about later, which also involves our guy, Anthony Kim, and that incredible story. We will save that for the end here for the big takeaway, but just continue to go through this and rip off our receipts from this week, and then we can move into to Auronomic. Max Homa was another one. And like, I just, I'm can't, I really like Max Homa. And he, we've talked about this a bunch of times.
Venmo Joe (12:24.386)
Yeah, I love them.
Scott Kitun (12:27.694)
He is a course horse for sure. He's got his places. His game right now. I just like there are flickers if you squint where it's got like a Dustin Johnson kind of appeal to it. And then all of a sudden you open your eyes all the way like that ain't it. And I can't like I can't quite get the grip on him. Is it it's not lack of interest. He seems like he fucking loves golf.
Venmo Joe (12:50.922)
dude, he's got the he's got some of the best work ethic on the tour, right? He's just been he's been fighting.
Scott Kitun (12:56.686)
and he's got, is a new caddy, like what is the, why is it that he, you know.
Venmo Joe (13:01.108)
Yeah, well, he was, mean, yeah, he's had a he's had a pretty big drop off the last two years, I think, you know, change with the caddy. Yeah. He's.
Scott Kitun (13:08.014)
He's the modern Ricky Fowler. He's like this Cruz Ricky Fowler, but he never got as good. think, well, he never, I don't know if he peaked as much as Fowler,
Venmo Joe (13:15.404)
Well, he didn't get, he doesn't have the commercial, background that Rick has, he's like, max was beloved by, I think like the greater golf population still is right. Like, you he used to interact a lot on Twitter. I don't know if he's even on it anymore, but remember he used to do like the he'd roast your swing. he's in.
Scott Kitun (13:18.796)
What?
Scott Kitun (13:34.38)
Now you got Michael Kim doing that. Michael Kim's all over Twitter right now, just like randomly. He is diving into random, random people's videos. They'll be like, I had a nice day at the park with my kid. And he dives in randomly in the comment section and will be like, you're turning your wrist over too much. And the ball is leaking and you got shitty clubs.
Venmo Joe (13:53.539)
Yeah, that Michael Kim's got too much time on his hand. He's all about X, but I like the insights that Michael Kim gives on on like the day to day and the week to week PGA Tour life like he gave some great insight. But back to Max like he's just been. He's been chasing stuff right like his driver was really off last year and like now he just he just can't seem to put it all together. Just inconsistent parts of his game.
Scott Kitun (14:01.794)
You call it
Scott Kitun (14:08.92)
Mm-hmm.
Venmo Joe (14:22.818)
putting kind of comes and goes with him. His driver is still a little bit erratic. I hope he figures it out because he's one of my favorite golfers on tour. But, you know, he's a guy that's that's going to be a stay away for me for quite some time until we see some level of improvement. Really, the only place that he seems to have gotten some consistency is at Augusta. But at these other at these other courses, he just and even Quail, right? We called out that he's had success there. He's won there.
Scott Kitun (14:39.682)
You don't.
Venmo Joe (14:51.08)
It just didn't materialize into anything unfortunately for our betting card.
Scott Kitun (14:55.874)
You know, it's funny and Max, I have the Max story. get to play a hole with Max at our favorite Rich Harvers Farms. And he was every bit the gentleman that you think. He, you know.
I wish I was half the, I wish I was a hundredth of the golfer that he is. What I would say with when I watch him is he, I would not say he's got a struggle or a problem with any of his particulars of his game. It's not that there's a struggle. He has a hard time turning the gears on and off when needed. It's like he's always on a seven or a six and a half out of 10. He's just always on a certain plane.
And when the guys who win and the guys who are like, Ooh, this is my course. This is my window. Scotty is the perfect example. This obviously at an extraordinarily elite level. is Scotty. We talked about this after what his last Scotty's last tournament or two tournaments ago where he's just sort of hanging in there. And you said, he got started too late. Scotty is in a position where he can just sort of watch the game unfold in front of him, pick his spots and go, Ooh, this is a time where I can put a little pressure on, turn his game on a little bit, put the pressure on.
and then sit right back down in a neutral and wait for you to fuck up and then chase you. And Homa, and obviously that's the elite level of this, it is like by order of leagues down the leaderboard for golfers, if you will, of like who has the ability to do that? We talked about Cam Young, right now it feels like he has the ability to Rory clearly in majors has the ability to do that. Homa's one of those guys who throughout his entire career, even at his peak, I felt like...
He was a victim of his own game. He's gonna play the game and it's gonna be as good as it wants to be, but he can't turn on certain parts. He can't level up in the moment at the time. His game is just on. If that on is better than everyone else, then he's in contention. If it's not on, then it's not in contention. He doesn't have the ability to play into it. I'm not describing it exactly right, but there's something about it that just feels like when it's time to rev it up.
Scott Kitun (17:06.326)
It doesn't rev. It's not that it collapses or something. It's not that it just doesn't rev. It's so to watch.
Venmo Joe (17:11.49)
Yeah. He just seems to have to expend a lot of energy round to round, right? Like nothing seems easy for him. I mean, he'll, you know, he'll play a perfect hole. He'll birdie it. And you're like, all right, Matt, like to your point, like, all right, maybe he's, he's up, like, you know, he's up the gear level here and he's going to be off to the races. And then he'll just, he's kind of like Spieth or Hovland right now. He just has that erratic scorecard, right? Where you go, you go three.
Scott Kitun (17:19.15)
Right.
Scott Kitun (17:36.802)
mean, speech is just, is speech game at this point, right?
Venmo Joe (17:39.543)
Three to double bogey, back to a birdie, back to a bogey. And that just puts so much stress on you. And that's the stuff that the elite guys don't have. To your point on Scottie, he picks his spots. But when he doesn't pick his spots, he's going to the middle of the green. He's got a 25-footer for birdie. If it goes in, great. If not, he's got a stress-free par. Homa doesn't have those stress-free like.
Scott Kitun (17:47.182)
It's hard.
Venmo Joe (18:07.094)
kind of moments within a round. Like he's grinding for every single thing. And that's why you're not seeing great results with him, right? Where he's like fighting tooth and nail to have an even round, even par round. Like that's kind of what he is right now.
Scott Kitun (18:19.651)
Well.
Scott Kitun (18:22.954)
I can appreciate the feeling of grinding through life, Joe. Trust me.
Venmo Joe (18:26.454)
Yeah, for sure. I'm grinding for bogey golf. I'd love to be grinding for par golf.
Scott Kitun (18:30.604)
I'm just talking about real life, real life.
Every day is a fucking grind. So I want to talk about the other pick I had him as top five, he did it and he ended up top 10, blew it. But this is our transition point to the PGA and that's Cam Young. I mean, we put him on our list, we talked about it he did everything you would expect him to do last week except for the second half of Sunday and it went to shit. And you know what, if he would have had like a ball in the water.
or you know, one three putt and that's how it went down. I wouldn't have any concerns in the world. I just got done talking about this last week about watching him with his composure, calling a fucking foul on himself and then drilling a putt. You said his putter is unbelievable right now. And my contention is, is that that he has evolved and he is now a very, very good putter or is he on a hot putting streak and
Regular cam. I mean, by the way, it can't be both. Regular cam is the old cam or is regular cam an elevated putting cam and he just happened to have a four putt and a three putt. Because it couldn't happen at a worse time. Because I love, we've been talking about this for weeks, love cam coming into major season here. And then he does that and I'm like, a minute. What did you see? What happened to you? You have a hot take on cam in general this week.
Let's use cam as our segue. We know he didn't get it done on Sunday, but he didn't get it done in a way that makes you, it's got a little hangover.
Venmo Joe (20:08.544)
Yeah.
It is weird, right? I mean, like, you always get the, you know, when a professional golfer does something that a regular golfer would do, you know, you get all the tweets that say, Hey, Cam Young, one of us, right? Because he, you know, three putted from like four feet. Um, I think Cam is a really good putter. Yes. Has he spiked? Of course. Right. Like, I mean, at the Rowell, like, is that, is that going to be the putting that you see every week? Of course not. The guy would be fucking Tiger Woods if that's what it was.
But over, think we have a big enough sample size with Cam Young where he's a good putter. He's just, you know, who knows what happened there. My cautionary kind of like feel for Cam going into the PGA is that, mean, dude, he's the most tipped golfer that I've ever seen, right? Like I've consumed a lot of PGA championship content this week. I know you have too. Everyone always, everyone comes out with their.
Scott Kitun (21:03.818)
No way. No. You're reading about golf this week,
Venmo Joe (21:08.706)
Yeah, always. But more so this week, if you look at the power rankings that I've seen, a lot of guys have cam over Scotty and Rory, which I think is absurd, right? Yeah, he's playing unbelievable golf, but he still hasn't won a major. You've got Scotty, who's won four. He's the defending champion of the PGA championship, won by five strokes at Quail Hollow last year, which is a much tougher course than you're going to see at Ironimic.
And Rory like so I just any time that I see the putt like you know the soda like the The quote-unquote like golf experts plus the public just circling a guy It's an automatic stay away from me like could he win sure I just you know at 11 to 1 and him being like the favorite that I see more people picking than anyone else You know usually the public is just isn't right on that
Right? When you have a consensus pick, you know, run the other way. Right? If it seems too good to be true, usually it is. and that's what's got me uncomfortable with, with Cam this week is just like the universal love coupled with the fact that he hasn't won a major and you saw a little bit of the putting yips on Sunday.
Scott Kitun (22:27.576)
I mean, that's enough for me to be a stay away. I wouldn't say it's a fade, but it's.
Venmo Joe (22:33.09)
Yeah, it's not a fate. It's not a fate. It's not like where we've had conviction on certain guys where it's like, hey, they can't win. Cam can absolutely win. What I'm telling you is he's most tipped and like you're not getting a ton of value. And here's a, here's some stats for you. Before the Ryder Cup and Cam Youngwood became Mr. clutches could be, he was 80 to one to win this tournament before Bethpage. Best American at Bethpage. I think the odds go to like 50 to one.
Scott Kitun (22:57.409)
Yes.
Venmo Joe (23:03.106)
you know, before the players championship, he was, he was 33 to one. like there was value in camp young, like, that's what you and I have talked about, right? Like there's spots where you can get value months in advance of a tournament. but if you're telling me I could have gotten him at 80 to one in September and now he's at 11 to one, like the value is gone. Right? Like it's been completely, it's been completely eroded.
Scott Kitun (23:11.287)
yeah.
Scott Kitun (23:25.974)
Yeah, he's not a bettable. He's not a bettable. He's maybe a good bettable during the tournament live. Yeah.
Venmo Joe (23:35.075)
I completely agree. All three of the guys, Scott, right? Our top three tier, right? Rory, Scotty, Cam. I think that's the guidance that we've given our audience. This is what I did with Scotty last year at Coil Hollow. Absolutely loved him at Coil Hollow. He was three to one to start. I'm like, I can't take him at three to one. So I tracked him on Thursday. I think he started off pretty slow, you know, maybe plus one through four or five holes.
got to his odds doubled, right? He went to like six and a half to one and I buried him at six and a half to one. That would be my recommend. Like pick one of those top three guys, whether it be Scotty, Rory or Cam and wait for your moment Thursday or Friday to pounce on it. And if the odds never get there, they never get there.
Scott Kitun (24:03.906)
Now you're in.
Scott Kitun (24:21.39)
I mean, you know, I love that model. It also keeps it very, very entertaining as the kids are running around and you're sitting there watching golf and listening to golf. And it's like, Oh, put a little wager in here and, know, watch it run out. I'm expecting cam for real trying to, trying to pay for college. I'm trying to, yeah, well, I'm just using it to pay for a chat GPT. The cam thing and put a, put an end on it. The cam thing that
Venmo Joe (24:32.546)
Yeah, you're like, you're like girls, come on. Dad's in the lab right now. Dad's trying to pay for your, yeah, well you're trying to pay for Disney now, but yeah, college too.
Scott Kitun (24:50.124)
I want to see this is kind of a, I guess, V2 of our conversation from a couple of weeks ago. I, there's an opportunity in a major to have a horse race. And we put him in that you're in the top four. And we kind of said like Matt Fitzpatrick is, but he's not, he is like, if he, if he wins or he's in top place, I wouldn't be surprised at all. But I'm not expecting day one. It's like, here's Rory, here's Scotty, here's this guy, and here's this guy, and we're going to watch him chase. I would love to see Cam.
Venmo Joe (25:06.786)
you
Scott Kitun (25:20.5)
make a horse race Saturday and Sunday, whether he wins or not or in top five is fine. But to see those guys doing this on Saturday, Sunday, and if he can do that, even if he doesn't win, I'm going to put him on the okay, this guy's in that group because this is the tournament that the major where you're like, it's all been fun. It's a cute story. You look dominant. But can you can you play it out with these guys? And so that's what I'm excited to see. I think the course is
is super interesting. You kind of talked about the top. The last PGA champion there was Gary Player. So they haven't really played there a ton. I don't know. Right. So you've got like the course design. It's very, in my opinion, like very old school. And there's like, you know, we've kind of done our homework, so to speak, on here. There's a handful of holes that are long, but it's like
Venmo Joe (25:58.627)
Yeah, 1962, been a while.
Scott Kitun (26:17.164)
It's kind of gettable, like I'm going hole by hole right now and it's like, I don't see.
Venmo Joe (26:19.399)
way, way, way gettable. Way gettable.
Scott Kitun (26:22.51)
I mean, only see one, see, two holes are 500 plus and neither of them are 600. They're about 560 and 570. They'll probably play 580 at daytime. Once again, this is an approach shot tournament, second shot tournament. like, again, going through the list, like putting on a slope is like, know, even scrambling isn't like that reward here. It's just kind of part of the round.
Wedge prox is not a huge thing. Like most of these guys are going to be hitting 52s into the greens all day. So like, I don't know, man. feel like distance is not an asset here. I'm looking at this course and it just, I'm trying to think of the players.
Venmo Joe (27:04.162)
Yeah, it's good. It's going to be. It's well, I mean. I the interesting debate has been like, oh, you know, because it's it's less than 7400 yards, you know, it doesn't need to be a bomber, right? It doesn't need to be, you know, a Rory or a or cam necessarily. It opens up the it opens up the opportunity for a guy like Russell Henley, which we'll get into.
right, which usually he's kind of a little overpowered by a PGA championship course because it's four or 500 yards longer than this. I still think, mean, the driver always plays, right? So like, still think this is a great course fit for Scotty Rory and can, but to your point, it's really about who really excels in that 150 to 200 yard approach shot because it is a par 70.
You've only got two par fives. not super long. And the par fours, especially on the front nine, are not long, right? So think the front nine is much more gettable than the back nine. Right, I'm looking at it right now with the great data that you and the team put together, right? Like hole one, 432 yards, hole two, 415.
Hole 4, 460, Hole 6, 445, Hole 7, 440, Hole 9, 415. All the par fours on the front nine are less than 500 yards, which like, yeah, that's not typical for PGA Tour courses now. We see a lot of par fours that are like 520, 530. So I think it's gonna be who's best positioned in that 150 to 200 yard range and some of these big bombers on most of those par fours.
are going to have like flip wedges in, right? So you're going to see a lot of pretty good proximity numbers, I would assume, on these approach shots from some of the guys that we're going to call out.
Scott Kitun (29:09.07)
Yeah, I mean, again, looking at the card, if I'm betting live, I'm looking for guys on 12, 13, 14, 15. On 12, it's the blind tee shot. It's the hardest, I would say, maybe it's the second hardest. It depends on the tee shot. If your tee shot's wayward at all, it's the hardest hole in the course. If you can survive that hole, you're going to birdie, somebody will eagle number 13. It's drivable, somebody's gonna eagle that.
Venmo Joe (29:24.61)
Yeah.
Venmo Joe (29:35.767)
Yeah, drivable, yep.
Scott Kitun (29:38.144)
If you can then get on and get off without anything over par on the par three, I think from there on out, you've got the par five, another scoring opportunity. The rest of the round is in your control. So if I'm looking at some of these guys and I'm thinking live bet, I'm watching Thursday or Friday coming into the weekend, Cam Young, for example, he's in it, but he's not in it, comes into 12. I'm looking at his odds right there. If he makes the whole, if he does well on 12, I'm like, okay, I'm
Venmo Joe (30:04.067)
It's a great.
Scott Kitun (30:06.774)
I'm putting on him right now and ride it into the weekend. then thanks to thanks to the magic of prediction betting, you can fucking sell later. It doesn't matter.
Venmo Joe (30:15.971)
Yeah, no, that's a great call. That's a great call. So yeah, summary of the course, shorter. It doesn't sound like the pros are all that concerned about the rough that's been put in place. Roared even said it. He goes like, he's almost taken the approach that Bryson used to take, which is just like, I'm going to hammer it down there and figure it out. I think.
Scott Kitun (30:18.254)
Ahem.
Scott Kitun (30:41.41)
I was going to say that that is definitely the route that these guys take the young, the whole, all these young guys. But I mean, we talk offline. We talk a lot about like all the different analytics that change sports and all the trends, different sports and whether it's three point shooting in the NBA or whatever golf has a similar thing where it used to be like play it short, find position, you know, avoid traps. Now it's like fucking bomb it and just, you know, I'd rather be long and wide than short and on the right spot.
And I guess that's something a lot of people probably say.
Venmo Joe (31:12.833)
Yeah. Now I will say looking at this course for me, this would be, this is like absolute nightmare fuel. Cause it's got 174 bunkers on this course. I think that's the most bunkers that they'll see on PGA tour all season. like for me, a guy that historically cannot get out of the sand, this place would absolutely terrify me. know, bunker, these pros are so good at the bunkers that that doesn't concern me.
Scott Kitun (31:29.74)
Long day at the beach.
Venmo Joe (31:42.084)
They don't seem concerned about the rough. There's not many holes with water. I think it's three, right? So completely different than what we talked about at Doral a couple of weeks ago where water came into play a lot. You're not going to see that at aeronomic. I think it's going to make for great theater. I don't think it's the absolute best test in golf, but the PGA championship, that's not really their lane, right? That's the US Open. That's the Open Championship.
That's the, that's the true test of golf where you're going to see some crazy conditions. You're going to see guys struggle to stay under par. Like this is going to be fun. Like I look at this, this is, this is probably going to be a leaderboard. we saw in 2024 at Valhalla, right? Where it was like Xander, when Xander won that his first major, great story, great theater. Bryson was right there. Victor was right there. Like everyone was all those leaders were in the, you know, high teens for scoring.
Like, I don't think we're gonna see like crazy double, triple bogeys, but by the time you and I are hanging out Saturday and Sunday, like the leaderboard is gonna be stacked and it's gonna be awesome. And I don't see anyone running away with it because I just don't see a lot of guys struggling with this course, right? So I would be surprised if you saw a guy like Scotty last year get, he won by five. I don't see that happening this week.
Scott Kitun (32:58.495)
I think...
Scott Kitun (33:06.348)
It's also an incredibly deep field. This field feels like it's just every, everyone, everyone who's anyone is at this tournament. And the number of people who I'm not talking about winning it, but are playing well enough that they're gonna be on the board like Ricky Fowler we're talking about. He's playing fucking awesome. I'm not putting money on him to win this thing, but he's like all those guys. Yeah.
Venmo Joe (33:09.155)
156 guys.
Venmo Joe (33:25.591)
Dude, I love dude. Yeah, but we should put him on our card. He's playing great, dude. He is playing so unbelievable. I know you and I got excited about him on Sunday and then he proceeded to miss like a five foot birdie putt on 16. But I love Ricky. I agree with you. You're going to see a lot of guys that you maybe have forgotten about a little bit that haven't been in contention that you're going to see. Yeah.
Scott Kitun (33:35.766)
Yeah. To Ricky.
Scott Kitun (33:48.022)
Everyone's charging. Everyone's just coming and playing really, really good golf. There's a handful of guys, Victor Hovland and a few that are like not, but even that, even they're not, is still like damn good golf. So the only other,
Venmo Joe (33:59.3)
The warning I would give on Hovland, because you know my love for him. No, no, no. I saw a video this weekend, or like think this morning or last night on the driving range where he was hitting irons cross-handed. And it's just like, dude, Victor, can you just stop? You're making it really hard to love you right now because you're just...
Scott Kitun (34:03.23)
I'm not putting money on that.
Scott Kitun (34:13.56)
Cross-handed?
Venmo Joe (34:21.729)
You're tinkering, you're in the lab way too much and you've lost your way a little bit. Like just go back to the guy that fucking out-dueled Scottie at Olympia Fields three years ago. Like where's that guy? That's the guy that I want to watch.
Scott Kitun (34:37.262)
I don't know. He hasn't been here in a while. I'm as I've said, I'm off the Hovland train for a while. And when I see shit like that, the tinker stuff, I know it's time to time to pack up, you know, handicapping the players who are here. It's there's not a ton of guys with a ton of history here, but the guys who do are notable. Justin Rose is one here playoff at 18, one in 2010. He's probably got the best course history. Tommy Fleetwood, I'd tell you he's won here, but he hasn't because he's only one of the FedEx and that's it. But he has the on course record twice in 2018.
He's a stud. And I think he's playing really, really well, actually. He's just not quite at that, like, turn it on, which scares me. I would never intentionally pick Tommy Fleetwood for a win, just because I think as a better, at least, and also just as a consumer, usually betting on people to do something that they don't do win is not a great reward. But putting him in a top five, I feel good about, because I do think he's playing really well. And this is the kind of tournament that he sneaks into. And it's like,
Venmo Joe (35:06.829)
Yeah.
Scott Kitun (35:34.712)
yeah, Tommy Fleetwood! That dude's still a boss.
Venmo Joe (35:36.451)
Yeah, of course, of course. And then you guys, did you call Keegan out? Keegan won in 28. Oh yeah, yeah.
Scott Kitun (35:42.06)
I did, yeah, did not, you just did. just don't, like, is Keegan
Venmo Joe (35:47.3)
Yes, yes, I mean, dude, come on. I do. think he's going to win. No, but like, I mean, let's not forget less than 12 months ago, everyone was making the case that he should be on the Ryder Cup because, you know, he won a signature event at the Travelers. He was playing great golf. He's won a PGA rather than is one and only major. you know, someone to, you know, I would, I would look at top 10, top 20 for Keegan.
Scott Kitun (36:15.554)
I mean, I'm down to throw on it. like, for some reason I just, and maybe honestly, maybe once you become a captain of a Ryder Cup, I just assume you're an old man card now. And it's like, to me, no, I know it's just, I'm not for some reason not looking for him. But anyway, let's start putting it down.
Venmo Joe (36:26.071)
Yeah, but he ain't, man. He ain't. Alright.
Venmo Joe (36:32.629)
Alright, who you got winning, man? You've got the suspense built up. I want to know who Scott's picking to win.
Scott Kitun (36:42.54)
Man.
Venmo Joe (36:43.779)
I'm one guy. I'm one guy.
Scott Kitun (36:47.519)
One guy to win.
Scott Kitun (36:53.216)
Like, I really, this is boring. I really think Scottie Schaeffler is gonna repeat. I think he's gonna have like Rory did repeat masters and Scottie's like, fuck that, I'm coming back. He hasn't gotten that win. He's been dangling around the end of it. And as you said, I don't think there's gonna be a runaway. I know it's a dumb pick, but if I had one guy and not because he's the best, well, it's just a chalk pick. Yeah, well, but it hasn't been for how many weeks in a row. It's been not the right pick.
Venmo Joe (37:03.832)
Yep.
Venmo Joe (37:12.624)
It's not a dumb pick. It's probably the right pick. It's definitely a chalk pick.
You know, you know what's frustrating? I love that. Obviously I love that pick. I look at Scotty a lot like I looked at him going into Quail Hollow, right? Where it's just like, it seems inevitable. What I don't love is the fact he's only won once this year and his odds like have not adjusted at all. Right? So it's like, you're still paying this super premium for. Yeah, like you're still paying the super premium on him. Like you're still paying the super premium on him. I'd like three and a half or.
Scott Kitun (37:37.486)
Yeah. It's not, I'm not, like I said, I'm not spending money on it. Not now. Like I'll wait, I'll wait till Thursday.
Venmo Joe (37:49.924)
four to one and it's like to your point, biggest field that they're gonna see 156 guys, right? So it's like, you're getting three to one on a guy that's won once. You're still paying for 2024 and 2025 success. And I do think he's got a chip on his shoulder, right? I think that the fact that the world of golf has been talking about Rory winning the Masters, you know.
Is Cam the best player in the world right now? Is Fitz the best player in the world right now? And like, I could totally see this as an opportunity for Scottie to be like, what'd you guys forget about me?
Scott Kitun (38:22.496)
Right. Right. See, I mean, that's, probably my.
Venmo Joe (38:24.791)
So I like the, I like the pick. I mean, I'm going to go chalky too, not as chalky, but I'm going back to Alberg, Ludwig Alberg. Dude, this course fits him so well. I tracked him all four days at Quell Hollow. He was frustrating to track, I would say that, and watch. He just, he couldn't make.
Scott Kitun (38:28.206)
Probably my pick.
Scott Kitun (38:37.036)
Big.
Venmo Joe (38:52.739)
11 to 13 foot putts until Sunday, which he very well could have been in contention because he finished top eight and missed probably 15 from that range over the first three days of the tournament. He's driving the ball fantastically. He plays long par threes really well, which you're going to see at aeronomic.
He's got a, yeah, he's got a tendency to chip in, right? He chipped in at the players a couple of times. He chipped in at Quail Hollow. I think you're going to see him chip in once or twice during this tournament. He drives the, I mean, he's been driving the ball so good. And like, yes, did he miss a lot of 11 to 13 footers last week? Yes. But what that tells me is that his approach shots were pretty dialed in, right? Like his proximity was, was super close, right? With those, you know, giving himself.
Scott Kitun (39:19.106)
Yes, he does.
Venmo Joe (39:44.12)
realistic birdie putt opportunities. He's gonna win a big one soon. I've got to be on him when he does. I think this is a great course fit for him. People are off him a little bit just because he's been frustrating. You had the players collapse. You had him kind of stuck in neutral for the first three days last weekend. But I just got a feeling this is one of those weekends where he's just gonna be rolling.
and you're gonna see him at the top of the leaderboard and be like, fuck, why didn't I pick him? So I'm gonna pick him.
Scott Kitun (40:17.142)
I think it's a great pick. It's by far the best value pick, I think, in the entire tournament. If you're looking for actual talent, ability to win a tournament like this, and then also how the markets got priced, it doesn't get better than this. Other guys that I'm gonna call out here I think are worth paying attention to financially perhaps. Russell Henry, I always love putting Russell in it, but this is a course made for him. You called him out before. When the course is like this,
It allows him to have just an extra little bit of ability to contend. Called out Fleetwood. I know this is gonna sound groovy because it's like every time it's a coin flip, whether he's in contention or he just does like misses the cut. Justin Thomas has been playing well. He's had a couple of tournaments that don't go well, but he like, there's something there. He has like, he's walking and talking like a guy who's in it and believes he's in it.
whether or not he shoots 76 on the first day and is out of it, I can't speak to that, but I feel like that's one where odds are pretty solid for a pick like that, a guy who's got two going for a third, could be interesting. Anyone else that you think of that stands out as like a good favorable pick that is real chance to gala?
Venmo Joe (41:25.547)
I like that.
Venmo Joe (41:31.748)
Yeah, no, I do love saw it, but no, I want to double down on your Henley call, right? I mean, he is very tipped right now. He's not quite as tipped as our boy can, but I see a lot of people calling him out. But I think it's for the right reasons, right? His superpower is his wedge play. You know, with the course being a little less than 7,400 yards, he's going to have a lot of approach shots from inside 150 yards. So I look for him to
10, we just got to see if he can win or not. Right. So my, my guidance there would be maybe a sprinkle on a winning ticket, but really focused more on top five, top 10. Cause I do think that he's kind of like a top 10 major merchant right now. So I think that's a pretty safe bet. and like the commentary that I keep hearing about this week, which I agree with is that when you have a course that is gettable, it kind of, it, opens up the competition to, you know,
the mid-level hitters plus the long bomb, like the long bombers. do, I do think, yeah, I just think it's right to produce a first time major champion, which is, which is kind of why I love Ludwig and Henley, right? First time major champion opportunity, two guys that, you know, seem to fit the course really well, playing really well.
Scott Kitun (42:34.126)
Cory Connors is in that mix. Sun J is in that mix.
Venmo Joe (42:55.356)
I would not be shocked at all if we saw a first time major champion and it be one of those two guys. Other.
Scott Kitun (43:02.164)
I'm gonna throw out one guy that I make fun of every week when you pick him, but I'm gonna pick him. What if Akshay comes out of nowhere? No, but seriously, I don't like him.
Venmo Joe (43:09.499)
you've talked me out of him. You've talked me out of him. You've talked me out of him. So now it's hard for me. I'm the lefty. get the lefty. I get the lefty. I'm lefty. That's my choice. Dude, I don't know. You... Yeah, I don't know. Is it going to be windy in Pennsylvania? He might get blown over.
Scott Kitun (43:14.988)
Yeah, cause I want him. I want him. I want the, I want the Indian stick. I want the stick.
Scott Kitun (43:26.614)
Here I got Akshay live. Akshay is live on the show. Akshay, what do you have to say?
Venmo Joe (43:39.299)
weekend. that you know, that's something that
Scott Kitun (43:40.748)
No, his, what he won earlier this year, it was a field like this where it's stacked and everyone's kind of looking for the horses because there's so many. And he just like played fucking good rounds. I don't, I could, I'll tell you this, I already put money on him being the first round leader. I could see him being first round leader. That doesn't bode well for him winning, but.
Venmo Joe (43:48.439)
Thousand percent.
Venmo Joe (44:00.132)
Ooh, I got a first round leader for you too. Listen, Akshay, Akshay I like, you've kind of opened my, you've opened my eyes on him the last couple of weeks, so I'm gonna stay away, but I will fully support you jumping on him. I like two guys for first round leader, one Nick Taylor. He's got a pair of opening round 66s over the last two weeks.
Scott Kitun (44:04.759)
Let's have it.
He's my sneaky pick. That's the one I'm throwing in.
Scott Kitun (44:15.982)
That's because I wanted him.
Venmo Joe (44:29.431)
could totally see it because it is a par 70 and you've only got two par fives and like that's really where the the long hitters usually have their advantage is you've got four par fives or at least three. This one's only two. I could see him just playing like a really solid round of golf and he just holds pots when he's on. Huge value there. I think he'd be like 100 to one on first round later. And here's a guy that everyone's forgotten about. You and I talked about him last year.
for the US Open, but then he went to live and disappeared. Thomas Detry, the guy that ran away at Phoenix last year, looked like he was gonna be kind of entering that, not the first tier, but like second, third tier of PGA Tour superstars. You're getting so much value on him because he is out of sight, out of mind. So I like Detry top 10.
Scott Kitun (45:05.251)
Yeah.
Scott Kitun (45:12.769)
I love that one.
Venmo Joe (45:27.391)
at seven to one and I'm also going to sprinkle him first round leader because he could be one of those guys where literally everyone forgot about him and then you know you're looking at the leaderboard Thursday night and you're like fuck Thomas Detry there he is so those are my two picks for the audience on first round leaders
Scott Kitun (45:45.228)
You know, I just put D-Tree top live golfer. We didn't even talk about live golfers and we're not really going to. I just don't think that Rom looks like he's in any mental place and I don't like Bryson's fucking out to lunch. So I'm not touching that. I love D-Tree as the top live golfer. I want to wrap on this. I know we got to go roll. How do you think Alex Fitzpatrick is going to do this week? And I want to acknowledge how fucking unreal this run has been. This is a guy people were like, myself included.
Venmo Joe (45:51.701)
I like that. Rom, stay, you're such a far stay away.
Scott Kitun (46:11.948)
who didn't, in fairness, I didn't do my homework on him really. It's a DP tour guide, the brother of Matt. Matt's awesome. Matt, you know, has that awesome bunker shot. He gets the tour gift card of a lifetime. It's amazing. But then he rolls out a top 10 and then finishes four. He was in contention. He just kind of faded at the end. wouldn't say blew it or anything like that. Right.
Venmo Joe (46:17.111)
Yeah, that's all we know.
Venmo Joe (46:30.263)
Big time, big time contection. I mean, final group, right? Like, I mean, went into went into Sunday with the lead. I think he's I think he's going to play really well. I don't think he's going to win the PGA Championship, but like he's clearly on a heater right now. He's playing with House money. He's got all the confidence in the world. I think he I think he's going to play really well. I love it. I like I think that.
Scott Kitun (46:52.716)
What are the fan duel odds that we can get for two Fitzpatricks in the top five? What is that bet?
Venmo Joe (46:57.825)
Hey, would, I, dude, let's do, let's look at that right now.
Scott Kitun (47:03.566)
That pays for Disney right there. While you're looking this up, I just want to wrap it. I just feel like no one saw what his game was and now we got to see it. like I said, I don't think he blew the round on Sunday. He just didn't win it. And there is a curve you have to learn to win. And he's going to learn the major curve, which is like the biggest thing that we talk about every week is why not Fleetwood? Why not this guy? Because they haven't busted it through on the major. So I don't think he's going to.
But holy shit, I feel like the PGA Tour just adopted a top 25 guy, Matt's brother, and we just didn't know.
Venmo Joe (47:40.088)
Yeah. Well, did you, did you see they were already talking about like team Fitzpatrick for the rider cup in 27, like pairing it, pairing up Alex and Matt. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The chemistry, the chemistry there. So that, so to pay for your Disney trip, a parlay of Matt and Alex in the top five would be 90 to one. So there you go.
Scott Kitun (47:48.044)
Yeah, it's gonna be, my God, I would want nothing to do with that. They should.
Yep.
Scott Kitun (48:03.448)
Bing, I'm booking that as soon as we finish this up. You know, the funny thing about Alex that I noticed, we talked about on the show a couple of weeks ago, when he played with Matt, I feel like Alex is one of those guys who has all the game, but what ends up happening is he takes kind of dumb risks and dumb shots. And when he was playing with his brother, I distinctly remember one period where Matt asked him, what were you doing? Like on his shot, he walked up and he's like, what were you thinking?
And I feel like it clicked in his head playing with his brother and seeing it all in real time on the PGA and not the DP is not, it's not the PGA. And it was like, yo, like you don't have to do that. You play, play positionally. And ever since that he's on the tour and it's like, I don't see a guy out there like trying to press. I see a guy who's just like taking the shots as they come to him. He might be on a heater, but like, I don't know. He, he looks, he looks pretty good to me. So that is a
Venmo Joe (48:54.647)
He looks like he belongs and I'm happy for him because there was people talking shit after the Zurich and being like, he got gifted a tour card. And you and I disagreed with that because we actually watched the tournament and we actually had the stats on how many birdies he had when they were playing best ball and what he was bringing to the team on alternate shot.
Scott Kitun (48:57.912)
for more than belong.
Scott Kitun (49:17.75)
You could tell he was a real player.
Venmo Joe (49:19.841)
He earned it and I'm just happy that the first two weeks that he got to show it, he rose to the occasion and he's been in contention and everyone's like, wow, I was wrong on him. So props to him, love to see it. And I look for him to play really well this weekend.
Scott Kitun (49:40.994)
Well, you got my card now. You guys can follow us at Katune at Venmo Joe at no strokes pod on Instagram. We're going to post the actual scorecard and the pics. You got them on the show here, but you can get it there too. Joe, as always, it's a pleasure. It's early. We got a whole workday ahead of us. And then tomorrow I'm going to clock out mentally and watch golf because that's what I do.
Venmo Joe (50:00.227)
There we go, I can't wait, See you, buddy.
Scott Kitun (50:02.286)
All right, take care. See ya.